The theme of this week is trends. A trend’s definition states “a general direction in which something is developing or changing.” Going into week 10 in the NFL there are a lot of trends from the past to guide us: individual players have the ability to dominate once specific matchup, or one team may have an impeccable head-to-head record against a certain opponent.
One particularly trend involves what many consider to be the greatest quarterback of all time. Tom Brady will play his first game in Germany this Sunday, but not his first game overseas. Brady has played abroad (all in London) three times in his career, and he just so happens to be a perfect 3-0 in those games. How’s that for a trend?
Another trend has been Aaron Rodgers consistency against the Dallas Cowboys. Including the playoffs, Rodgers has won three consecutive games against the Cowboys and is a dominant 7-2 all-time against Dallas.
The beautiful part of the NFL is that all these trends can end at any moment. Just because something has happened in the past, does not guarantee it will occur in the future. All good things must come to an end, and the parody we’ve seen in the NFL this season is indicative of that.
A wise man once reminded me, “always update your resume.” Meaning, it doesn’t matter what you’ve accomplished in the past, all that matters is what you do in the present. With the present at the forefront of our minds, let’s jump into this week’s picks.
All betting lines are courtesy of Circa Sports. (Reserve a seat at the Circa Sportsbook or Stadium Swim.)
Seahawks at Bucs (-2.5) (in Munich) Over/Under 44.5
As previously mentioned, just because a trend has been established does not mean that it can’t be broken. Well, this will be the case for Tom Brady abroad. We like Seattle in an upset even in Germany. This young, stout defense has gotten better every week. On the offensive side of the ball, Geno Smith should be in consideration for league MVP. He is first in the league in passer rating, first in completion percentage, and third in touchdown-to-interception ratio. They also have Kenny Walker who at this point is a shoo-in for offensive rookie of the year. We still don’t buy the Bucs on offense even after that comeback win over the Rams. They are the worst rushing offense in the league and all their offense has been is just short crossing routes and not enough big plays. I like the young upstart Seahawks in this one.
Our pick: Seahawks +2.5
Texans at Giants (-4.5) Over/Under 41
This is our lock of the week. We love the G-Men in Week 10. The Giants are fresh off a bye and are ready and rested to begin their second half of the season. Meanwhile, the Texans’ offense is imploding and they are headed in the opposite direction. This is a recipe for success for the Giants to crush the Texans on the ground and run away with this game early. The Giants are ranked third in the league in rushing yards thanks to Barry Sanders 2.0 (Saquon Barkley), while the Texans are dead-last in the league in stopping the run. On the offensive side of the ball, the Texans are a bottom three offense, Dameon Pierce is dealing with an injury, and Brandin Cooks has been dealing with a wrist injury as well.
Our pick: Giants -4.5
Lions at Bears(-2.5) Over/Under 48.5
Yes, the Bears lost in back-to-back weeks, but this offense has been incredible lately. Justin Fields has turned into a Fantasy darling, setting the record for most rushing yards in a single game by a quarterback in NFL history last week. The Bears offense is currently averaging 31 points per game and are the number one rushing team in the league. Another recipe for the Bears success on Sunday is that the Lions are 0-11-1 on the road during the Dan Campbell era. This is the Bears game for the taking.
Our pick: Bears -2.5
Chargers at Niners (-7) Over/Under 45
In this Southern California vs Northern California matchup, we unfortunately like the team from NorCal to win and cover the seven-point spread. The Chargers are one of the most injury-prone teams in the league. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are still out. They struggled mightily to beat the Falcons last week despite facing Atlanta’s below average defense. The Niners defense will cause a lot of problems for this banged up Chargers offensive line. The Niners are ranked ninth in the league in passing yards allowed and first in rushing yards allowed. They should be able to easily clamp down on a hobbled Chargers team. On the offensive side of the ball, I expect another monster performance from Christian McCaffrey. The Chargers have allowed the fourth most rushing yards this season and with McCaffrey getting more and more comfortable with his new team, he should be able to exploit a depleted Chargers front seven.
Our pick: Niners -7