Yes, we know. Last week was as terrible of a week for The Sporting Tribune that there was even possible. In movie terms, it was a box office bomb. Going 0-6 with picks was unprecedented, but this is a new week though. If it was easy, everyone would do it and would be millionaires ten times over. The games were outlandish and ridiculous. Onward and upward. Only four games, and we are going to give it everything we got this week to bounce back. We are going to take the liberty to alter a Big Sean song by stating, “Last week we took an L, but this week we bounce back.”
This week’s trends for the divisional round include Patrick Mahomes historically never losing a playoff game in this round. The San Francisco 49ers are 7-1 Against-the-spread (ATS) in the divisional round since 1997. The New York Giants have the best ATS record this season at 14-4 and are 7-1 against the spread on the road.
Let’s see if these trends continue and here are the picks:
All betting lines are courtesy of Circa Sports. (Reserve a seat at the Circa Sportsbook or Stadium Swim.)
Jaguars vs Chiefs (-8.5) Over/Under 53:
Despite being a heavy favorite, we are going to ride with the Chiefs Kingdom. In addition to Patrick Mahomes’ winning career trend this round, the Chiefs are well-rested since coming off of a bye. This is one of the strongest home-field advantages in all of football as the Kansas City Chiefs finished the season 7-1 at home. Additionally, the Chiefs finished first in passing offense, and Mahomes leads the league in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. We foreshadow him to be the clear favorite to win MVP. Without Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs offense hasn’t had much of a dropoff, and the team has had four players rack up more than 500 receiving yards with Travis Kelce, Marques Valdez Scandling, Juju Smith Schuester, and Jerrick McKinnion all chipping in. The Jaguars have been a great story this year. They just came off one–if not the biggest — upset in playoff history after coming back from being down 27-0 to win 31-30 against a reeling Chargers team. That being said, this team took so much energy in their comeback from that win that they emotionally might be spent while traveling to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. Trevor Lawrence threw for four touchdowns that game but also threw four interceptions, and the Jaguars weren’t particularly good for most of that game. It’s one thing to make those mistakes against the Chargers, but to make those against the Chiefs will be an automatic loss.
Our pick: Chiefs-8.5
Giants vs Eagles (-7.5) Over/Under 48:
If these articles were not about picking the spreads but limited to picking which teams just “win,” then we would be picking the Eagles to win despite Jalen Hurts’s the banged-up shoulder. Although we think the Eagles will still win, we also feel the Giants will cover and will make this game very interesting. As previously stated, the Giants have the best record ATS in the league at 14-4. This is a divisional rivalry, and it is tough to beat a divisional opponent three times in a row. The Giants committed the second-fewest turnovers on the offensive side of the ball. The Eagles have struggled lately prior to their first-round bye as they finished 1-2 to end the season (since Jalen Hurt’s shoulder injury). The last time these teams played was the Eagles with their complete starting field against the Giants JV squad, yet, the Eagles still struggled. The Giants are getting key defenders back for that game in Leonard Willaims, Adoree Jackson, and Xavier McKinney. With New York healthy and riding high over their win over the Vikings, it’s easy to presume they will prevail over the rusty Eagles who will come out struggling in a tough divisional playoff matchup. This is our lock of the week.
Our pick: Giants +7.5
Bengals vs Bills (-4.5) Over/Under 48:
This is the matchup of the week. Two AFC heavyweights. One strong memory. The last time these two teams played was during the very memorable Damar Hamlin incident. While the incident is memorable, what we noticed before the incident was that the Bengals scored on the Bills on the very first offensive possession of the game. What that indicated to us is that this Bengals team can go toe-to-toe with the Bills. The Bengals have not lost a game since Halloween night to the Cleveland Browns, and the Bengals have been coming together at the perfect time. The Bengals have been statistically a top 10 both on offense and defense this year. If the Bengal’s defense wants to make game-changing turnovers like it did last week, then they will have to concoct a plan to force mistakes from Josh Allen of the Bills. This season, Buffalo has committed the second most turnovers in the league, and Josh Allen has had five multiple-turnover games. The Bengals can create turnovers on the defensive side of the ball, and they rank sixth in points allowed and could give the Bills’ offense some trouble. Despite the Bengals’ perceived deficit of being without three starting offensive linemen, they still have Joe “Shiesty” Burrow who threw for 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions for the season. As long as he gets the ball out quickly and isn’t party to that many sacks, they should be good. Also to note: the Bengals finished with the second-best record Against The Spread this season.
Our pick: Bengals +4.5
Cowboys vs 49ers (-3.5) Over/Under 46:
We wrongfully went against “America’s Team” last week, but we are not making that same mistake again this week. We are going to roll with the Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL in red zone scoring. If you scratch out that abysmal offensive performance against the Commdandrs in week #18, this offense has averaged 32 points a game. Last week Dak Prescott had the best game in his entire life. He threw for 305 yards and had five total touchdowns in last week’s game. As for the Niners, if this were an experienced quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo, we would be picking the Niners. But, as great as Brock Purdy has been, he has faced some very weak defensive opponents. He looked stiff in the first half of his first playoff game against Seattle. It is a whole other animal to go up against one of the top three defenses in the league in the Dallas Cowboys. Again, if this were an article about picking teams to win, we would be picking the Niners still, but as far as picking on who to cover, we are going to take the Cowboys to cover and make this close.
Our pick: Cowboys +3.5
