LOS ANGELES -- It's become inevitable in the NHL playoffs over the last few seasons that the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers will face each other in round one of the playoffs.
The Oilers have owned that series the past three years, beating the Kings in seven, six and five games respectively, blowing the Kings out of the water last season. However, for the first time in this matchup, the odds are starting to swing in LA's favor, and analysts are picking them for their first series win since 2014.
Let's preview how these two squads match up against one another.
Goaltending:
This is home to maybe the biggest gap in the series, with Darcy Kuemper coming off a Vezina-caliber season versus Stuart Skinner's subpar season that had some questioning whether he'd start game one a few months ago.
You could argue the Kings had a slight edge in this category in the last two series, too, but this year it feels different. Unlike Cam Talbot and Joonas Korpisalo, Kuemper isn't just a product of an elite defensive system, he's also putting up stellar numbers within that system. Kuemper's been elite all season and has Cup-winning pedigree.
Goaltending is the most volatile position in the sport and can change quickly, but barring a massive fall-off from Kuemper or a miraculous resurgence from Skinner, the Kings have a comfortable age in this category.
Advantage: Kings
Defense:
The best defenseman in the series is Edmonton's Evan Bouchard, who's had a stellar season posting 67 points and a 1.9 WAR, good for top 15 in the league, but with Mattias Ekholm out, the drop-off is stark. Bouchard is also more of an offensive defenseman whose defensive impact comes from keeping the puck 200 feet from his net.
The Kings' depth on the backend far outweighs Edmonton's, with Vladislav Gavrikov, Mikey Anderson and Drew Doughty all providing better options than what Edmonton can roll out.
The Kings' defensive structure is also far superior to Edmonton's, with LA finishing the regular season second in goals against per game compared to Edmonton's 14th-place finish.
A big part of that gap is down to LA's forwards as well, the Kings have an elite group of defensive forwards led by Anze Kopitar, Phil Danault and Quinton Byfield up the middle. Add in wingers like Trevor Moore, Warren Foegele and Adrian Kempe, and you have a much better group of two-way forwards than Edmonton does.
Advantage: Kings
Offense:
Similar to the defense category, the Oilers have the best individual players in this series offensively, but lack in the depth department. Unlike the defense category, it's hard to give the Kings an edge based on that depth. In Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers have, arguably, two of the three best forwards in hockey, with Draisaitl a likely lock to be an MVP finalist. Bouchard on the backend is one of the league's top offensive defensemen and one of the deadliest power-play threats around.
After those big three, LA has a group of players, including Kevin Fiala, Byfield, Kempe, Kopitar and potentially Andrei Kuzmenko, that are better than anyone Edmonton can throw out. The Kings also have the edge with their depth forwards like Foegele, Moore and Alex Laferriere.
This is the same matchup we've seen three seasons in a row. Do the Kings have enough depth to counter the Oilers' insane top-end talent? History tells us no, but this is the most high-powered Kings team we've seen heading into this series.
Still, McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard have combined for 91 points in 18 playoff games against the Kings. Unless LA can massively slow those three down, superior depth might not matter.
Until we see the Kings either outscore their problems or slow down Edmonton's three stars, LA can't take the advantage here.
Advantage: Oilers
X-Factors:
Size and Physicality:
Three years in a row the Kings have been pushed around and bullied by the Oilers in the playoffs and Rob Blake addressed that issue last summer. In adding players like Joel Edmundson, Warren Foegele and Tanner Jeannot, the Kings became a more rugged, difficult-to-play-against team. Jeannot will miss the start of the series, but in Jeff Malott, the Kings have a similarly physical player and the other pieces of LA's lineup have held up their end of things.
There's no doubt this Kings team is bigger and meaner than in years past, now we'll have to see if that actually matters.
Byfield and Fiala:
If the Kings are going to close the offensive gap between the Oilers, it must be through Byfield and Fiala. Both have been on a tear during the second half of the season, sitting third and first in team scoring, respectively, but we need to see it in the playoffs. Fiala has struggled a lot in the postseason, posting just 0.53 points-per-game and a -12 plus-minus, and had just two points in five games last season.
Byfield posted four points in five games last playoffs but had no goals and didn't take over games the way he'll need to this season. These two will likely see a lot of Edmonton's third line as Kopitar and Danault take on McDavid and Draisaitl, and they must feast on those matchups.
Special Teams:
This series has been determined largely by special teams three years in a row, and if LA can't figure out this part of the game, they're looking at a fourth-straight exit. The Kings' power play has been much better since the addition of Kuzmenko, but they can't get into a habit of trading power plays against a team that went nearly 50% on the power play against them last season.
Shutting down Edmonton's power play isn't an option; it's more about mitigating their chances and getting your power play close to as efficient.
The Kings must stay out of the box and capitalize on important power-play opportunities. The Kings are a better five-on-five team but that's been the case a few times in this matchup and it hasn't mattered because they've been shelled in the special teams battle.
Kings v Oilers Part Four:
This is the Kings' best chance to finally get past the Oilers, but it still feels like a true toss-up. This is the most extreme version of this matchup, with LA's depth being better than ever and Edmonton's being worse, but you can't compensate for two players grabbing two points per game.
This is a true 50/50 series, but until we actually see the Kings do it, I'll have to say Edmonton in six here.