ARCADIA, Calif. -- I interviewed track announcer Jason Beem a few weeks ago, ahead of some races at Tampa Bay Downs.
“I don’t really pay attention to the Derby Trail until we get to the 50 point races. When’s that?”
Well, Jason - it’s now. This weekend begins the real push toward Kentucky Derby 151, with 50 point preps on Long Island, in South Florida, and in Arcadia.
The Grade 2 San Felipe - a 1 1/16 mile dirt race for 3-year-olds - is Santa Anita’s March prep. Three winners of this race have won the Derby since 2000: Authentic in 2020, California Chrome in 2014, and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race 9 times, has half the field of six this weekend. The Gotham (NY) and Fountain of Youth (FL) are both being run Saturday at Aqueduct and Gulfstream, respectively.
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Let’s meet this talented field, and put together a wager.
Santa Anita Park. Race 8. The Grade 2 San Felipe. 1 1/16 miles, dirt. 3YO. $300k.
1. Mellencamp. 6/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Mellencamp comes in winless in in four lifetime starts. In the modern era, Derby preps need more than five starters to get the full qualifying points; my sense is trainer Bob Baffert and the SF Starlight ownership group wanted to make sure their other entry - Rodriguez - get the full points here. Mellencamp’s best race was his first, a 6 furlong sprint. I think he settles in as a sprinter going forward, and we may see him in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day, but not in the Derby itself.
Comment: toss.
2. Journalism. 7/2. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Mike McCarthy.
Journalism is a serious prospect on the Derby trail, a son of top sire Curlin and out of Mopotism, herself a graded stakes winner. He won his second career race before topping 3 Baffert trainees in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December. Trainer Mike McCarthy and jockey Umberto Rispoli have combined to win on 24% of their recent Santa Anita starters, and McCarthy wins an impressive 19% of his graded stakes starts. Journalism is easily the most likely non-Baffert winner, and if he were to win, would put himself alongside Citizen Bull as the favorites heading into the Santa Anita Derby.
Comment: Likely winner.
3. Barnes. 1/1. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Barnes will forever be the answer to an odd trivia question: Who was trainer Bob Baffert’s first runner at Churchill Downs after his suspension expired? A $3,2000,000 purchase, the connections have always had high hopes for Barnes. And why not? He’s a son of top sire Into Mischief, and his dam is by American Pharoah. He screams royalty. He’s won both of his starts, including that maiden win at Churchill; he was easily the best last out in the Grade 2 San Vicente. If he’s vulnerable, it’s in this spot: he’s never gone two turns before, and this is by far the furthest he’s ever traveled. No matter - Baffert is the best ever at this type of training job, and Barnes should absolutely be part of the equation at the end.
Comment: Most likely winner.
4. Rodriguez. 9/5. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Rodriguez comes into this race as the only starter with a triple-digit speed figure, having scored a 100 in his maiden win at Santa Anita, a two-turn mile over this dirt course. His last start was in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, where he finished a game second to the talented Citizen Bull. There’s no Citizen Bull in this one, but Barnes will offer a significant challenge with his natural speed. We see the 5 furlong / 6 furlong workout pattern we expect with Baffert’s top runners, and his most recent 6 furlong work was faster than Barnes’. The addition of jockey Flavien Prat is a massive plus, and gives Rodriguez a serious shot.
Comment: include.
5. Smooth Cruisein. 30/1. Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez. Trainer: Karen Headley.
Smooth Cruisein is a lightly raced sonn of Girvin, himself a winner of two Grade 2s and a Grade 1 during his 3-year-old campaign. His progeny have yet to win at the highest levels, but Girvin’s own talent speaks for itself. He ran fourth most recently behind Barnes in the Grade 2 San Vicente, and is trying two turns for the first time. Trainer Karen Headley has one graded stakes win on her resume, winning the Grade 3 Los Angeles Stakes with San Onofre at Los Alamitos in 2016.
Comment: toss.
6. Berlin Wall. 30/1. Jockey: Tiago Pereira. Trainer: Steve Knapp.
Berlin Wall won his last race through disqualification, but he ran well through a tough trip to get there. He’s a Cal-bred, and I think he’ll settle nicely into those ranks after he tries the Derby trail. He’s never run further than six furlongs, and has never crossed the line first. His breeding says the distance is no issue - he’s by Practical Joke out of an Into Mischief mare - but we’ll let him beat us in this spot.
Comment: first toss.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
Late Pick 4, starts race 8: 2,3,4 / 1 / 3,7 / 1,6,7,9,11 $1 Base Wager = $30.
Good luck!
