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ARCADIA, Calif. -- Opening Day has come and gone, and it was a fun one - and it wasn’t just the product on the track that stood out.
Per Santa Anita’s media department, SoCal showed up: attendance for Opening Day was the largest it’s been in 8 years, and all-sources handle (the total amount bet) was up 17% from last year’s opener. There’s no need to parse this one: this is good news all around.
Saturday brings another great SoCal weather day: high 60s, and plenty of sun. The Joe Hernandez will be contested at Santa Anita as well, a Grade 2 turf sprint down the hill. Few courses are as unusual as the downhill turf in North American racing. The course begins on the backside of the track in Arcadia, heads down a short hill, before the horses cross the main dirt track before finishing on the main turf course. It’s a complicated, winding, beautiful piece of horse racing.
Joe Hernandez was the original race caller at Santa Anita, famously calling 15,587 consecutive races at the track.
He was there opening day - Christmas Day 1934 - until he fainted at the track microphone on January 27, 1972.
He called the 1950 Kentucky Derby, and was a bit of a Renaissance man: he was a TV and radio producer, actor, high-level athlete, and jockey’s agent. He did a bit of everything.
Let’s meet the field for the Joe Hernandez, and place a wager.
SA Race 6. Grade 2 Joe Hernandez. 6 ½ F, downhill turf. 3+up. $200,000.
1. Air Force Red. 9/2. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Leonard Powell.
I know what you’re thinking: I gotta bet Hernandez in the Hernandez, right? Well, he and Air Force Red won this race in 2022, and have had good success in his last two trips to the track. He’s won 4 times over the downhill course, and he should be part of the equation here, as well. His recent showings in stakes races has been less than stellar; those races, however, were run at a mile. This shorter sprint distance should help. He’s an include.
Comment: include.
2. Code Duello. 20/1. Jockey: Armando Ayuso. Trainer: Craig Dollase.
Code Duello has been running in quarter horse / thoroughbred mixed races at Los Alamitos, whose races are generally run at 1,000 yards, or just over a half mile. This race is run at ⅘ of a mile, making it a touch longer. Code Duello has tried this course before, to no avail; his last turf sprint was a 5 furlong run at Del Mar, where he lost by less than a length-and-a-half. Jockey Armando Ayuso - despite not getting great mounts in SoCal - is having a terrific year, winning at 14%. He’s not of the same class as the others in this race, but he has a serious shot to hit the board. Include him in your exactas and trifecta plays.
Comment: Include in exotics.
3. Sumter. 15/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Hall-of-Famer Mike Smith gets the mount aboard Sumter, whose solo win this year came over the turf course at Santa Anita. They tried him most recently in the Grade 2 Seasbiscuit, where he had the early lead but faded in the final moments of the race. That race was contested at over a mile - a cut back in distance is just what the doctor ordered. He ran very well in the Clocker’s Corner and Grade 3 San Simeon - both over the downhill course earlier in 2024. Trainer Richard Mandella hits at a healthy 19% going from route to sprint (from longer to shorter races), and wins 26% of his graded stakes starts. We’re passing, but the case is obvious.
Comment: Include in exotics.
4. Irideo. 8/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Marcelo Polanco.
Irideo’s 2024 tells three stories: early, middle, and late. Early in the year, he won the Clocker’s Corner, the January lower-level version of this stakes race. In his next 6 races, he finished no better than 4th. Enter jockey Hector Berrios, and Irideo has a win and a 3rd place finish by a neck. The win was at Santa Anita, but not on the downhill course; he’s 2-for-16 lifetime at Santa Anita, and we don’t expect an improvement in winning percentage after this one.
Comment: Leave out.
5. Unconquerable Keen. 5/1. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
Jockey Umberto Rispoli is having a career year: a solid 20% win percentage, and over $10,000,000 in earnings. He was aboard Johannes all year, and piloted him to an amazing year. Unconquerable Keen is a beneficiary of his skill, but not the bettor: Rispoli is largely to blame for the short 5/1 price. While he’s coming off of a win, Unconquerable Keen is 0-for-2 on the downhill course, and hasn’t looked terribly comfortable on the course. It’s a tough leave out, given the connections, but not everyone can win.
Comment: Reluctant leave out.
6. Motorious. 5/2. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
The second of three D’Amato runners, Motorious comes in off a spectacular run in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, finishing a game 2nd by a neck to Starlust. Motorious is the lynchpin of the card: if he wins, the payouts will be lower; if you can beat him, it opens a bunch of losing money for you. We’ll take the clue from trainer Phil D’Amato: he and Fresu win at 21% together, with Rispoli he wins at 9%; last year after the Breeders’ Cup, he gave Motorious nearly 6 months off. He clearly thinks he’s in good form, and ready for this one. We’ll use him as a single.
Comment: Most likely winner.
7. Central Dispatch. 4/1. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: John Sadler.
Jockey Flavien Prat broke legend Jerry Bailey’s single year record for most graded stakes wins by a jockey on Thursday, with 56. It’s an incredible number, and he has a chance to pad that number in this race. Central Dispatch’s career took off recently after a move from dirt-to-turf: in his first 5 races, all on dirt, he won once; he’s 2-for-2 since moving to the grass. If Motorious weren’t in this field, trainer John Sadler would be able to improve what is a less-than-awesome graded stakes record; but he is, so it’s likely to be tough sledding, even with Prat’s great form.
Comment: Include.
8. Gaslight Dancer. 12/1. Jockey: Frankie Dettori. Trainer: Richard Dutrow.
International superstar jockey Frankie Dettori gets the mount here, with a horse who has been on the improve of late. Gaslight Dancer has benefited from the move to the Dutrow barn, with 2 wins in 4 starts after 2 wins in 15 starts prior. His wins have come in optional claiming company at Aqueduct, and this is a step in the class direction. A ton of questions remain: will he step into this class? Will he like the downhill? Can Dutrow improve on his recent 8% hit rate in sprints? We’ll guess no.
Comment: Leave out.
9. Sorrento Sky. 6/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
Sorrento Sky comes in in a good vein of form: two wins and a second since starting his current form cycle in September. He won both optional claimers he was in - one at Del Mar and one over this course - before finishing a close 2nd to Unconquerable Keen in the Stormy Liberal. The move to Kimura has been a winning one, and I expect another great run here. Include for longer tickets.
Comment: Include.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$3 Turf Pick 3, starts race 6: 6 / 5,9 / 1,2,6 Wager is $18. Good luck!