Horse Racing

Breeders’ Cup Friday Features Future Stars

Oct 31, 2024 • 11:21 pm

It’s here - the World Championships! Breeders’ Cup returns to Del Mar for the first time since 2021. The event will return to Del Mar in 2025, as well.

Breeders’ Cup is a 2 day event, with the Friday races focusing on “juvenile” horses, or 2-year-olds. Friday is a showcase of the stars of tomorrow - many will be prominent on the Kentucky Derby trail, along with many of the world’s best turf runners, as well.

Let’s look at a few of our top plays, and meet some of the best on the card.

Race 6. BC Juvenile Turf Sprint. 5 Furlongs, turf. $1,000,000.

2 Aesterius (IRE). 9/2. Jockey: James Doyle. Trainer: Archie Watson.

Aesterius has won 4-of-6 races this year, with 1 defeat coming in a high level stakes at Royal Ascot in June. The connections thought enough of this horse to place him in that company, and he showed up in a serious way, losing by less than 2 lengths.

Until recently, this race had been dominated by American runners. The main reason? American runners grow up running over courses with turns; in Europe, many of the courses have stretches long enough that horses run in straight lines over this distance. Aesterius ran his first race - and won - going left-handed (around a turn). This bodes well for his chances Friday, and the 2 horses to his outside are both Euros, as well, meaning he can break at his usual pace.

Race 8. BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. 1 Mile, turf. $1,000,000.

1 Lake Victoria (IRE). 8/5. Jockey: Ryan Moore. Trainer: Aidan O’Brien.

Lake Victoria is the most likely winner of the day. We spoke with Glasgow, Scotland-based handicapper James Welsh and he was stunned to see her stateside in this field. “I can’t believe they’re shipping her!” quipped Welsh, as though a million dollar race was below her.

Well, she’s here. This daughter of Frankel - arguably the greatest turf horse ever - is primed and ready. She’s 4-for-4 lifetime, has the breeding and connections to die for. She’s already won 2 Group 1s in Ireland and England, races generally considered to be the top turf races in the world. She should be a lynchpin in anyone’s bets on Friday.

Race 9. BC Juvenile. 1 1/16 miles, dirt. $2,000,000.

1 East Avenue. 5/2. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer: Brendan Walsh.

This race is loaded, and it’s a good sign for the KY Derby trail: these young colts will make up much of the early buzz on the road to the Derby.

East Avenue comes in off a dominating win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, where he won 5 ¼ lengths over Ferocious, who drew the 4 hole in this one. One of the considerations when handicapping any Breeders’ Cup card is the host track: Del Mar features one of the shortest final stretches of any major North American track, a trait which generally helps front-running horses.

East Avenue’s win at Keeneland was over their course which utilizes the first finish line, meaning the stretch is cut down by 1/16th of a mile. This may not seem by much, but it’s often this difference in distance that allows a front-runner like East Avenue to get away and win. His running style, and considerable speed, should allow him for a front-running win in the Juvenile.

If you're in San Diego for the Breeders' Cup, or just a person who enjoys a cocktail and a cigar, please consider joining us on Friday night.

Louie will be at Excalibur Cigar and Scotch Lounge in San Diego starting at 8PM PT. There will be rum tastings with our partners at Brown-Forman, and we want to buy you a cigar. Louie can answer any questions you might have about Saturday's card.