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It’s a question that arises annually at the Breeders’ Cup: Can the 3-year-olds keep pace with the older horses over the first weekend in November?
The Classic seems to always beg this question and this year is certainly no different: The older two-turn dirt males are less than great, and the 3-year-olds this year have shown tremendous ability, whether stateside or in Europe and Japan.
It’s been a few years since a 3-year-old won this race, the last being September Kentucky Derby winner Authentic in 2020. That was an odd year, and before that it was 2016 with the late Arrogate.
American Pharoah won the year before, making it three 3-year-old winners in the past nine years. Doing anything at 33% in horse racing is a tremendous number and there are numerous 3-year-olds who fit the bill.
The early odds are out on the field, which were posted by bet365. Let’s meet the top 3-year-old contenders for the Classic and parse their chances.
City of Troy. +225. Jockey: Ryan Moore. Trainer: Aidan O’Brien.
City of Troy’s connections, Jockey Ryan Moore and Trainer Aidan O’Brien are among the most connected on the planet, so it’s no surprise to see him at the shortest odds of any horse on the board. He’s 6 for 7 lifetime with his one loss coming this year in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.
That was his first race off of a seven-month layoff and he hasn’t lost since. All of his best running has come on turf, but stranger things have happened with excellent horses making the switch in surfaces.
He’s a son of Triple Crown winner Justify, whose stud fee might hit a new record should City of Troy come flying home in the Classic.
In his previous race, the Juddmonte International, he surprised even the track announcer with his running style, saying “...and here’s City of Troy, an unlikely pace setter.”
This appeared to be an attempt by O’Brien and Buick to see if he’s up for the challenge of being near the pace in the Classic. He certainly was, winning with flair.
There’s a realistic chance, given his record, that he’ll be favored come post time. And he’s a worthy include in your tickets.
Fierceness. +450. Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Fierceness has seen Breeders’ Cup success, winning last year in the Juvenile at 16-1. He went to the gate as the favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby, before finishing a wildly disappointing 15th.
He rebounded nicely, winning both of his races since then: the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and Grade 1 Travers, both at Saratoga. He was his best self in both of those races and the Travers is run at the “classic distance” of 1 ¼ miles.
Trainer Todd Pletcher is comfortable training up to the Classic from his win in late August. He won the Jim Dandy after a similar layoff from the Derby to that race. A son of City of Light, he’s likely off to stud, regardless of the outcome.
Forever Young (JPN). +500. Jockey: Ryusei Sakai. Trainer: Yoshito Tahagi.
In horse racing circles, it’s an assumed when, not if, that the Japanese break through and win the Classic. Forever Young gives the Japanese contingent as good a chance as any.
Forever Young has one blip on his career resume: a third-place finish in this year’s Kentucky Derby as part of that incredible photo finish at Churchill Downs.
Like City of Troy, he’s 6 for 7 lifetime. The stark difference is surface: Forever Young has shown ability over dirt, and plenty of it. If not interfered with by Sierra Leone in the Churchill stretch, he’s your Derby winner and his year likely looks very different.
He would almost certainly be the favorite for this spot. At +500, he’s the best value of any 3-year-old in the field.
Santa Anita Play for 10/19/24: Late Pick 3, $3 base.
Starts race 7. 6 / 2,9 / 1,2,6 $3 ticket = $18.