Cleveland Guardians. You are on the clock.
Teams are finished or finishing their draft room meetings, while finalizing their big boards. This includes identifying the makeup of players based on pre-draft interviews, examining medical records, and doubling down on signing bonus demands to equalize their finances for a full 20 rounds.
Rumors still surround the top of the draft, and as I weed out the gossip from the truth, there will still be incoming information (and misinformation) over the weekend and all the way until Cleveland is on the clock. Consensus right now is that no one knows an exact name for who the Guardians will take first overall.
As you'll see, there isn't much movement at the top of the board from my first mock one month ago.
This will be my penultimate mock for the Sporting Tribune in 2024, with a "names only" mock that will come out around an hour prior to the draft itself on Sunday, based on whatever new information comes over these final 48 hours.
AUTHOR'S NOTE: As a caveat for myself and the reader, I am going to be wrong with who goes where on some -- and likely most -- of the picks. My responsibility is to garner information from reliable sources across the industry (agents, scouts, team personnel) and report that information. What is noted in one pick may be subject to the following pick, which means you should read this mock in full as opposed to just isolating one team and the report attached. I will still treat the readers as knowledgeable perusers who know how the draft operates to a general degree at minimum with knowledge of who the top draft picks are without explanation.
1. Cleveland Guardians - Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
Mum's the word. The industry has built a concept of Cleveland's primary targets for the first pick, but the selection will remain unknown into the final hour(s).
Travis Bazzana and J.J. Wetherholt are the leading candidates, with uncertainty about which of the pair is Cleveland's actual favorite. Charlie Condon, Chase Burns, and Jac Caglianone are also candidates.
A lot of who the first pick is will be dictated by finances and how they could maneuver money towards their second pick at No. 36. The under-slot rumors have faded a bit this week, with a focus on saving money later in the draft that would help swing a projected top 15 pick towards that 36th selection.
Let's try and make complex finances as simple as possible. The Guardians have $18.334M in their bonus pool. You can add $916.7K to that total with the 5% taxed bonus overage allowance without losing a pick in 2025, which every team utilizes to some degree. If they play rounds two through six conservatively around slot you can eliminate $4.3221 million from that pool. With $881.2K in slot bonus from rounds 7-10, they could opt to draft low bonus leverage senior signs, spending anywhere from $40-200K, that could save them anywhere from $680-840K.
We are playing with generalizations that teams use annually, but Cleveland could have anywhere from $14.7-14.8 million to use with their first two selections based on these conjectures.
Whoever goes first is more than likely going to cost $9 million, and preferably set the draft bonus record somewhere above $9.3 million (Paul Skenes got $9.2 million in 2023). There is an unfounded rumor that one player wants an eighth-digit signing bonus, but I'm not buying.
Wetherholt is believed to be the closest to $9 million since he could fall deeper into the draft than the rest of the quintet.
Bazzana sounds closer to $9.3, or maybe a tick over. However, he fits Cleveland's model the best with a lengthy track record of hitting with metal and wood bats, including a small but notable performance from his teen years in the professional Australian Baseball League. Cleveland has not had a top-10 pick in over a decade, but they have followed their draft model through and through under this current regime.
Unless someone -- Wetherholt, Caglianone, Burns? -- takes a notable pay cut south of the nines, the Guardians will be spending over $9 million on the pick which still leaves them somewhere between $5-6 million for the 36th selection, the suggested slot values of picks 10-14.
Trying to riddle my long-winded comment in short form; Cleveland could financially trade the 1st and 36th picks with the 3rd and 11-14th picks, which could land them a faller from the top 15 selections while still retaining the player they see as best in the class all along.
Who that/those faller(s) could be has picked up steam this week, with rumors of even seeing Konnor Griffin (a potential top-10 pick) falling based on guaranteed compensation with the Guardians, though that may be a bit too rich for me to fully buy into. I'll stick with the William Schmidt, Slade Caldwell, Theo Gillen grouping.
Just to play percentages like I did last year -- Bazzana 33%, Wetherholt 32%, Condon 20%, Burns 9%, Caglianone 3%, Field 1%.
2. Cincinnati Reds - Charlie Condon, 3B/OF, Georgia
Up until this last week, Condon seemed like a clear-cut favorite for Cincinnati if he was (and would be) available, but the Ohio River waters have muddied a bit with rumors this past week.
Condon is still considered the favorite, but Caglianone and Burns have picked up steam. Condon is believed to have the highest bonus demands in the class (rumored to be $9.5M+), giving Caglianone a fair shot at moving in here as a discount.
Whether the value/financial shift is enough to move Caglianone over Condon is the biggest question for me. Burns is in play and was seen in Cincinnati around a month ago, though that was more likely just for conversation or interview, which is fairly standard. Even if Bazzana were available, that trio still stands as the leading candidates.
3. Colorado Rockies - Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
It's the same trio as with Cincinnati with the same frontrunner. If Condon is here, I think he'd get the edge over Burns, with both having the edge of Caglianone.
Notably, Condon and Burns are both represented by the same agency and could try to maneuver towards the two picks on finances.
4. Oakland Athletics - Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
This is the floor for Bazzana.
It could also dictate how Cleveland operates with the first pick. Slot value here is $8.37M so there is enough cushion for Bazzana to take a minor pay cut at the top of the board compared to Wetherholt who could fall deeper into the top 10, making his bonus demands less stern.
With Bazzana off the board, Oakland will have their pick of the remaining college bats in Wetherholt, Caglianone, Braden Montgomery, and Nick Kurtz.
Kurtz and Montgomery could see a fall with no clear suitors until the eighth pick, and potentially down to the teens for Kurtz. This could lead to a slight under slot negotiation for either of them, though Montgomery has had wind here through most of the spring giving him the nod.
I'm not ruling out Wetherholt or Caglianone, but financially I'm buying heavier on Montgomery or Kurtz.
5. Chicago White Sox - Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
This is where the variance of scenarios at the top start to take major effect.
It may be playing devil's advocate, but there is a scenario where Wetherholt goes one, Caglianone goes two, Burns goes three, and Bazzana goes four. It is the reason clubs picking into the deeper part of the top 10 are still heavily on Condon, including Chicago.
This is the first spot with any credence of a prep player being popped, with Griffin leading the charge. For a brief time, Bryce Rainer was getting more attention than Griffin, but that may have been misguided on my side. Griffin is in a similar line to Montgomery and Kurtz ahead where his next landing spot would be in question, leading to an under-slot deal.
Caglianone is a secondary or tertiary option for almost each club in the top four and is most likely to be passed on despite the consideration. Wetherholt is also a leading candidate with Griffin, so any of the college pair or Griffin fit here.
6. Kansas City Royals - Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
There are some holding patterns when it comes to Kansas City with a safety net scenario. Condon, Caglianone, or others mentioned could fall this far which could sway them from their targets of Hagen Smith and Bryce Rainer. It doesn't play out in this scenario, and I go to Smith over Rainer by a slight margin.
Griffin gets some run here, but it sounds like Rainer gets the edge.
This is the first spot I hear James Tibbs' name mentioned, but that has started to lull over the past month.
7. St. Louis Cardinals - Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
Both Missouri clubs are in a similar scenario. Holding pattern to see if one of the top bats or arms continues to fall, or Smith and Rainer as backups. Wetherholt may be hard to pass on, and I think this is near floor for Montgomery.
I've heard Trey Yesavage attached to this pick more than a handful of times over the last month in a case of Smith or Burns not being available, but there is much more noise on Rainer than Yesavage at this point.
8. Los Angeles Angels - J.J. Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
As another caveat to my last mock, there will be more reader attention on this pick than others because of my history covering the club and the local clientele of The Sporting Tribune.
The fast-moving rumors are still present despite the club noting less urgency to that scenario, as are the under-slot rumors if one of the top bats or arms doesn't fall deep enough.
There have been unconfirmed sitings of Montgomery at Angel Stadium during their most recent homestand with club eyes on him deep into the scouting circuit, and connections to Wetherholt through most of the spring and into the final month, with belief they would be the leading candidates if they were to fall to eight.
The noise on James Tibbs III has shifted in deference to Kurtz who provides a better bat projection with a similar defensive outcome at around the same price. This will continue to be questioned on whether the Angels would go back-to-back on first basemen, but there is real interest in both Kurtz and Tibbs.
Christian Moore has gotten a lot of run here, starting around the time of his College World Series performance, with external clubs believing he may be much higher on their board than others. Ryan Waldschmidt is a metric and model darling who has risen up multiple boards, including the Angels, and has some real noise as an under-slot option anywhere from here to the early teens.
Yesavage starts picking up a lot of headwind from here on out, and based on my opinion of industry chatter, could be the leading candidate above Kurtz, Moore, and Waldschmidt.
The Angels stopped in fairly regularly on Cam Caminiti early and late this spring, while Rainer also gets attention as prep options.
With eight quote/unquote "premier" options at the top of the class, the Angels landing spot of eight puts them in a situation of both letting the draft play out in their favor and nabbing a top talent, while also having options if the right guy was to be plucked ahead of them.
I'm going Wetherholt over Kurtz purely on positional value, but I believe if either were to fall, they would be near or at the top of the Angels board for remaining players.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates - Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep HS (MS)
Pittsburgh is in a similar holding pattern to the Angels, and less like the Royals or Cardinals, with one or two of the top eight falling to them as opposed to a big-ticket Condon, Burns, etc. continuing to flounder.
I'm still buying the noise that local product Wetherholt could fall and land here if he isn't picked first and is skipped four through eight.
Rainer would see his floor here or next with Washington, and Griffin is linked in with Rainer at this pick, which could continue pushing Kurtz down the board. If Griffin doesn't land here, his next suitor would be a big question mark, which could favor someone like Cleveland or Arizona (we'll get to that later) who have the finances to swing him late into the first or compensation picks.
Tibbs and Moore get the most noise among under slot candidates if both preps and the right top players don't fall this far.
10. Washington Nationals - Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Despite changes in the Front Office, this still seems like a prototypical draft for Washington. It would be the floor for Rainer and could be the last initial stop for Griffin until deeper into the first round.
Washington should have their pick of the top bats, while the arms are more likely to be long gone at this stage. That would leave them with Kurtz in this scenario, which is still a strong connection in the industry, as are all the players mentioned above.
Yesavage is probably next in line, but expectancy is that they'll take whoever falls this far of the top arms, bats, and preps.
11. Detroit Tigers - Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
There is such a strong consensus attachment to Caminiti and Detroit being deeply linked that it seems clear he's at least close to the top of their board, both in the sense of model and talent.
This is where the next in line college bat and arm start to catch more consistent wind in Tibbs and Yesavage. Scott Harris does like his upside arms and disciplined hitters, and both hit the mark.
There are some rumors of them going a bit off the board with up-the-middle preps more frequently mentioned in the 20's, but I'm going to hold tight and stick with the top of the class for the time being.
Just to continue the "holding pattern" and "if this guy falls" comments, Kurtz could be an option. I've heard the concerns of Griffin's hit tool may be too much for them to pull the trigger despite the up-the-middle upside.
12. Boston Red Sox - Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore has persistent rumors at every even numbered pick (excluding 10) from 8-16, which oddly enough, comes right before San Francisco picks, who also has some form of interest.
Over the spring, Boston has been linked to the top up-the-middle candidates in Griffin, Seaver King, and Vance Honeycutt; and I believe Griffin would find a home here if available ending his potential fall.
Yesavage once again comes up here, and should find a home between 8-15, putting his bonus value somewhere safely between $5-6 million, with Boston being almost exact middle on those figures.
13. San Francisco Giants - Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
70% of San Francisco's entire bonus pool sits with their first pick and the industry is split on whether they'll go all in here or save what money they can by going notably under slot.
If Kurtz continues to fall, or Caminiti makes it past Detroit, this would be the clear landing spot, representing putting the majority of their chips on one guy.
Honeycutt, Benge, and Cam Smith come up frequently as deal-cutting options and may not see their names called for another 5-10 picks, preserving some funding (Benge more so than the others).
Again, Yesavage is in the mix.
14. Chicago Cubs - James Tibbs III, 1B/OF, Florida State
There will be a lengthy run of college hitters that starts around here. Moore and Tibbs are the leading candidates and should be near their floor, but you could begin filling in names down towards the early 20's with those two, Benge, Smith, Waldschmidt, King, and Malcolm Moore (who may have the most traction with Chicago away from Moore and Tibbs).
15. Seattle Mariners - Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
A little more straight forward for Seattle than the other clubs in this range. If Yesavage is available, he's the expected pick and this is his ultimate floor. If not, switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje gets his first serious run and likelihood here before falling off into the 20's and 30's.
Ryan Sloan is their most likely deal-cutting option, but probably won't sway them from Cijntje, and definitely not from Yesavage.
16. Miami Marlins - Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
Any of the bats mentioned from 12-14 are definite fits. Smith is perceived as next in line on the run of college hitters and has been connected to Miami for a larger part of the spring.
17. Milwaukee Brewers - Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Milwaukee sticks tight to their model with a glorified view towards hit and discipline tools. Waldschmidt is a data and model-darling who is among the biggest risers of those already perceived as mid-to-late first-rounders. Based on those models, his name is gaining traction well above this.
Benge, King, and the others come up here frequently.
18. Tampa Bay Rays - Theo Gillen, 2B/OF, Westlake HS (TX)
Kind of a stop gap for the college hitters, I wouldn't rule out Benge, Smith, or Waldschmidt. There are some open window notes about Tampa, with rumors of going under slot pending their model and ability to manipulate funds with the best of them.
Gillen is the best hitting prep, though has some health and positional concerns. He will go in the first 40 picks with ease and make his money in doing so.
This is the industry's perceived floor for Caminiti.
19. New York Mets - Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest
Going back to Milwaukee, the industry is awaiting to see how much pull David Stearns will carry the Milwaukee model into the war room. Hitability, plate discipline, and versatility are the key markers.
This may be the floor for Benge, and King has plenty of suitors ahead of this, which could flip-flop a few of the mid-to-late teen picks.
20. Toronto Blue Jays - Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS (CA)
Too many rumors and not enough space. Every hitter, every prep arm, potentially a college arm.
Doughty is near the top of second tier prep arms, but I'm going all in with conviction. It is his high mark for Doughty, but there's too much noise in my local area about this connection to ignore.
21. Minnesota Twins - Caleb Lomavita, C, California
If the college bats continue, Minnesota could carry the trend with a strong feeling of floating a prep to the compensation round and their next pick at No. 33.
I'm not ruling out preps, especially hitters like Gillen, Kellon Lindsey and Slade Caldwell.
Lomavita is part of a trio of catchers at the top of the class, with a notable fall off at the position beyond them. Walker Janek is viewed as the best of the group, but Lomavita has the best track record of hitting and power with a chance to stick behind the plate. Moore is also in this mix and is believed to have off the charts great makeup, but his arm brings questions to his ability to stick behind the plate.
22. Baltimore Orioles - Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
This is a blend of place and plug, and fair connection. Honeycutt is expected to go between picks 16-25 but doesn't have a true home at any of them.
Benge or Waldschmidt would probably end any slide here.
Every year, I hear an off-the-board connection to Baltimore that would fit probably 10-15 picks later than where they select. Last year, it was Brock Wilken who ended up going the pick after Baltimore to Milwaukee. This year, it is Kaelen Culpepper.
Culpepper has the best blend of offensive tools for players who have a stronger chance of sticking up-the-middle, which makes his profile more alluring than his projected draft stock, and has his name scattered and generalized anywhere from picks 17-40.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers - Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (FL)
There's been a recent flurry of comments about the Dodgers taking a college arm in the likes of Cijntje or Brody Brecht, but I'm not buying as much on that with their constant attachment to preps through the spring.
Gillen, Lindsey, and Caldwell are all mentioned frequently, but the latter of that trio may be out of price range with rumors of him being floated to Arizona, Baltimore, Minnesota, or Cleveland in the compensation round -- and with all those connections being blended together in rumors, I'm buying.
Lindsey has similar traits to Kendall George, whom the Dodgers took with their first pick last year. The profile and attachment make a bit too much sense in this range.
Kash Mayfield and William Schmidt remain on the board as the top prep arms not named Caminiti, and are also fits for this range and club, with Mayfield getting a bit more run.
24. Atlanta Braves - Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS (IL)
Pitchers for Atlanta, still. Make it five years running of first (and second) round picks on pitchers.
Cijntje and Brecht are the college arms mentioned most regularly here, with most of the talk surrounding preps. There are also rumors they may be lining up deals early, though which player that could be is still up in the air.
Sloan is on my radar for them as someone who is not only one of the top prep righties, but also went to school 10 miles northwest of Braves 2022 first-rounder Owen Murphy. While his name is mentioned enough to keep that connection in mind, Doughty and Dax Whitney are more frequently noted.
Keeping it honest, I'm going with my gut more than with the information at hand.
25. San Diego Padres - Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City HS (OK)
If you are a prep at the top of the board, your name has been attached to San Diego. It's no wonder since they have gone seven straight years going the high school route in the first.
Blend the cast mentioned ahead of this with and add in Carter Johnson, Wyatt Sanford, and Tyson Lewis and you'll eventually land on a leading man.
There are college players noted on occasion, and Cijntje is going to come off the board around of before this, so just trying to find him a home in the near future. I mocked a college hitter to the Padres last year; while noting heavily how attached they were to Dillon Head, so I just won't make that mistake again.
26. New York Yankees - Tommy White, 3B, LSU
In my last mock, I placed and plugged Tommy White to the Yankees with a note to how they value power, and then was promptly told that connection was legitimate.
Preps are mentioned more than White and other power bats but blend together. Doughty, Sloan, Mayfield are the usual candidates, while Luke Dickerson has been getting a solid run in this range as a late-blooming cold weather bat.
I had a curious chat with someone linking Ben Hess as a deal-cutting upside college arm, but I'm holding tight and just expressing that information.
27. Philadelphia Phillies - Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee
While the college bats that ranged 12-22 created some scattered chaos, the preps are taking a similar avenue in the 20's.
The same blend of preps mentioned and add in P.J. Morlando as a heavy link. Any of the remaining college bats as well, with Janek and Amick leading the way.
Schmidt is regarded as the top right-handed prep arm in the class, and that comes with a hefty price tag. The Phillies don't have much to spend in bonus pool funds, so I'm ruling him out for now despite fair connection.
28. Houston Astros - Wyatt Sanford, SS, Independence HS (TX)
Toolsy up-the-middle bats. Gillen, Lindsey, Johnson, Sanford, Lewis on the prep side. Lomavita, Janek, Culpepper on the college side.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks - Jurrangelo Cijntje, SWP, Mississippi State
Owning three of the next seven picks (29, 31, 35), Arizona has a tick under $8.6 million to play with in this range. Don't forget to add an extra $633K in 5% taxed allowance and $600-700K in senior signs and you're closing in on $10 million.
Caldwell and Schmidt have both fallen gracefully, and Arizona has the funds to pluck either of them at any of three picks if they can swing around Texas (30), Baltimore, Minnesota, and Milwaukee (32-34).
Caldwell fits their prototypical mold to the letter and is heavily rumored to being moved towards Cleveland at pick No. 36, which may give him the edge and push him to be the option here.
There will be some money saving options that fit closer to slot than above in the likes of Cijntje, Janek, Moore in this scenario, which could only benefit going for someone like Caldwell at 31, while still attaining the wide cast (too many to note) of targets at 35.
30. Texas Rangers - Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
There's still constant talk of the catching trio for Texas. Moore's makeup has swayed some teams over Janek's defensive traits, but it's altering opinions with each club of who they like more.
All the prep shortstops get mentioned from picks 22-35, and any could be a fit if Texas moves off the catching rumors.
INCENTIVE/COMPENSATION ROUND BREAKDOWN:
Cleveland and Arizona will dominate the compensation round.
I know it didn't pan out exactly like expected, but Cleveland will be able to move the needle on someone and swing them down to No. 36, whether it is Caldwell, Gillen, Mayfield, or even Griffin in that order. How this played out, they get the top prep pitcher who throws from the right side, potentially with finances to utilize at No. 48.
Arizona is going to throw a wrinkle into what happens for each club, and differing from the scenario I was able to navigate, Cijntje probably goes before Arizona at No. 29, and they'll have to utilize pick No. 35 as a money-saver.
I'm pretty confident in Culpepper being the pick for Baltimore if he's available, and outside of that, I'm doing some place and plug across the round. Minnesota gets another power bat. Milwaukee gets an upside arm that needs an overhaul on development. Pittsburgh and Colorado get power arms. Kansas City gets a faller who probably gets popped beforehand.