The last weekend of the Spring Meet — which many of us know colloquially as the Derby Meet — is upon us here in Louisville. Racing will take a break at Churchill Downs as the circuit moves to Ellis Park and Kentucky Downs, in the western and southern parts of the state, respectively.
Saturday features six stakes, three of them high level: the aforementioned Grade 1 Stephen Foster, a win-and-in for the $7M Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar; the Grade 2 Wise Dan, a two-turn turf race for older horses; and the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis, one of the best two turn dirt races for older female horses.
They’re all part of an all-stakes pick 6 to close the card Saturday, one which I’ll be covering in person. You can listen to our hour-long pre-race coverage at 8 a.m. Saturday here. It’ll include a Triple Crown recap from me, an interview with Trainer Cherie DeVaux — who sends Grade 3 Pimlico Special winner Pyrenees to the starting gate in the Foster — and Kaitlin Free, an on-track analyst at Churchill Downs.
Let’s walk through the field for the Foster, as we start our deeper look at who might or might not be a contender on Breeder’s Cup Saturday in San Diego.
1. Pyrenees. ML: 12-1. Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. Trainer: Cherie DeVaux.
Jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. became the first jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks, Kentucky Derby and Pimlico Special in the same year. He is on an absolute tear. It's unclear why this horse is 12-1 in this field; he’ll likley be around 5-1 or 9-2 when the gates open for the race. He is in a great vein of form, and can absolutely graduate to Grade 1 status and win here.
COMMENT: MUST INCLUDE.
2. First Mission. ML: 6-5. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Brad Cox.
First Mission is the class of the field and would be the least surprising winner amongst the starters in this field. Trainer Brad Cox said last week he was more than confident ahead of this race. “He’s durable and he’s training well.” Cox is clearly orchestrating a long-term calendar for this horse with the BC Classic as the final goal.
After a hiccup in his first race of the year at Gulfstream Park in South Florida, he’s bounced back with consecutive graded stakes wins at Oaklawn Park and Churchill. If you’re aggressive, he’s a single in your tickets. If you’re a gambler, you’d have to play against him.
COMMENT: MOST LIKELY WINNER.
3. Happy American. ML: 30-1. Jockey: Corey Lanerie. Trainer: Neil Pessin.
Happy American deserves the tepid 30-1 morning line he’s received here, and it would be surprising if he’s below that number Saturday. He’s won once the last two years, and is 0 for 5 this year.
COMMENT: FIRST TOSS.
4. Disarm. ML: 6-1. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Steve Asmussen.
Disarm is an interesting one and it's worth asking how differently we would be talking about him if he didn’t have to cut his 3-year-old campaign short last year. He ran a game fourth in the Kentucky Derby and followed it up with a win in the Grade 3 Matt Winn and a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Travers. Many of us thought he was going somewhere off that Travers finish. Instead, he headed to the farm for a break. He won on first ask back this year. He dog-walked the field in his first race back and gets a capable rider in Joel Rosario. He's an absolute must-include as we’re yet to see his best race.
COMMENT: MUST-INCLUDE.
5. Dreamlike. ML: 10-1. Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
It’s rare to get a horse like Dreamlike in a field like this at 10-1 as he has a single win on his nine-race resume: a maiden win. Literally his only lifetime win is against other horses who had never themselves won a race before. To his credit, he ran a game third last out in the Grade 3 Blame Stakes at Churchill. Trainer Todd Pletcher is throwing the blinkers on here to see if he can’t get the horse to concentrate a little more. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. is in town and promises to give him a good ride.
COMMENT: INCLUDE IN EXACTAS AND TRIFECTAS.
6. Classic Causeway. ML: 30-1. Jockey: Julien Leparoux. Trainer: Kenny McPeek.
Classic Causeway will have to do something Saturday he hasn’t done in a long time: win. He’s 0-for-the-last-two-years and I don’t see that changing. This seems like a terrible spot for him.
COMMENT: TOSS.
7. Kingsbarns. ML: 6-1. Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Kingsbarns is the toughest horse to figure out in this field as he’s capable of great runs, and of great duds. Recently, he’s been a gamer: He’s been no worse than second in his last four runs, including two wins, one of which was in the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes at Keeneland. If he runs his race, he wins. His worst case in this field would likely be hitting the board.
COMMENT: MUST INCLUDE.
8. Steal Sunshine. ML: 20-1. Jockey: Paco Lopez. Trainer: Robert Dibona.
Steal Sunshine will have to do just that Saturday — steal this one. He is 0 for 3 at this distance, but did win the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Mile earlier this year. He finished 7 lengths behind First Mission last out in the Grade 2 Aleysheba. A return to dry conditions should help him, and it would be stunning to see him hit the board.
COMMENT: USE IN EXACTAS AND TRIFECTAS.
9. Skippylongstocking. ML: 5-2. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Skippy is an interesting horse and if he sticks to his recent form, he’s a potential monster in this field. After a disastrous Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup run in which he didn’t even finish the race, he has rebounded very nicely to win back-to-back graded stakes. His numbers say he can win Saturday and with warm weather in the area, his training in South Florida should be an asset.
COMMENT: MUST INCLUDE.
Here are the plays for Saturday:
Skinny Pick 6 Play, starts race 7: 2 / 2,4,6 / 1,6,7 / 5,6 / 2 / 1,3,5,8,9
$.20 Pick 6 = $18.
Pick 3, starts race 7: 2 / 2,4,6 / 1,6,7 $2 Pick 3 = $18
