On Friday the U.S. Men’s National Team and England kick off mere hours after Wales and Iran play in their second match of the Group Stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The U.S. Men’s Soccer team have only faced the Three Lions twice before in the World Cup – in 1950, and in 2010. They won in 1950 and tied in 2010 after Clint Dempsey was gifted an equalizer by England’s former goalkeeper, Rob Green. Could Friday be the second time the USA defeats the team FIFA credits with inventing football in a World Cup, and what are the implications if they do or don’t?
Currently, Wales and the U.S. are tied with one point each after their own draw. The Lions, who are leading Group B with 3 points after a win against Iran, were always favored to end group play in first place, ensuring they advance to the knockout round. But the United States now have a convoluted path to finish number two. Let’s review the many possibilities ahead for the Stars and Stripes.
1. If USA loses to England:
And Wales beat Iran
… If USA beats Iran AND England beats Wales, second place will be determined by a tiebreaker system, starting with goal differential.
… USA will be eliminated if they then lose to Iran.
… Even if USA beats Iran, they will be eliminated if Wales ties or beats England.
And Wales-Iran tie
… USA advance if they win against Iran, unless Wales ties or beats England and USA finish ahead of England on tiebreaker.
… USA will be eliminated if they then lose to Iran.
And Iran beats Wales
… If USA beats Iran, unless Wales beats England and finishes with better goal differential than USA, USA advances.
… USA would be eliminated if it does not defeat Iran.
2. If USA ties against England:
And Iran beats Wales
… USA advance if they beat Iran.
… USA are eliminated if they lose to or tie with Iran.
And Wales beat Iran
… USA advance if it beats Iran and England-Wales do not tie.
… USA is eliminated if they lose to Iran.
… Three-way tiebreaker occurs if USA beats Iran and England-Wales tie.
And Wales-Iran tie
… USA will advance if they win against Iran.
… USA ties with Iran, and England beats Wales, it will advance.
… USA are eliminated if they lose to Iran.
… USA ties with Iran, and Wales beats England, it will be eliminated.
… USA ties with Iran, and Wales-England tie, tiebreaker between USA and Wales will start with goals scored.
3. If USA defeats England:
And Wales beats Iran
… USA advance if they beat Iran.
… USA advance if they tie with Iran.
… USA are eliminated if they lose to Iran except if Wales loses to England and finishes behind the USA on goal differential, or if Wales beats England.
And Wales-Iran tie
… USA advance if they tie or beat Iran.
… tiebreaker if they lose to or tie with Iran (2- or 3-way tiebreaker)
And Iran beats Wales
… USA advance if they tie or beat Iran.
… USA are eliminated if they lose to Iran, if England defeats Wales.
… USA enter tiebreaker for second place if USA loses to Iran, and Wales beats England or England-Wales tie
As you see, the best option for the USA is to take their fate into their own hands and win on Friday. While there have been notable upsets in the initial matches of Qatar 2022, realistically, the odds of England losing to the USA are slim so goal differentials will be crucial. The USMNT who missed the 2018 World Cup, started their match against Wales with fervor scoring before halftime, but as the Welsh side built their high pressing game throughout the second half, the US settled for a late tiebreaker after losing steam in their attack. All in all, the US had just one shot on goal.
On the other hand, a Premier League stacked English side arrived more ambitious than in the 2018 World Cup where they finished fourth. In their opening match, England put 7 of 13 shots on target against Iran. Although Golden Boot-winner Harry Kane, was not one of the scorers in England’s opening match against Iran, he set up his teammates with two assists and was a key playmaker. He’s also two goals away from Wayne Rooney’s all-time goal-scoring record for England.
This Friday, expect more of the same urgent attacking energy from Gregg Berhalter’s side against England but with the added benefit of subs like Brenden Aaronson and Gio Reyna. It won’t be as dramatic as George Washington’s strategy of 1776-77, but expect a war of attrition on the pitch (and a very busy Matt Turner).
