With the Ducks’ regulation win against the Oilers in their midday matinee affair on Saturday and their regulation win against the Canadiens on Thursday night, the Ducks not only picked up their first set of back-to-back regulation wins but also tripled their regulation wins on the season. There are a lot of positives, but also some alarming negatives that will need to be fixed if the Ducks are looking to make some headway on their abysmal 0.328 points percentage.

The Good

Let’s get the obvious out of the way, the Ducks had one regulation win prior to these two games, and now they have three regulation wins. Even with all of the underlying issues behind these games, getting some positive energy into the locker room was needed and their goaltender was a big reason for that.

Lukas Dostal was called upon to become the de facto starter with both John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz being hurt, and he stepped up in a big way. The Ducks allowed 2 expected goals against in the Montreal game and 5.8 expected goals against in the Oilers game for a grand total of 7.8 expected goals against over the course of the two games. Dostal only allowed 5 actual goals, which puts him at 2.8 goals saved above expected through those two games.

His best work came in the third period of the Oilers game where he was under siege to the tune of 38 shot attempts against (The Ducks had only allowed 44 shot attempts previously in the game) and 3.42 expected goals against. To top it all off the Oilers’ lethal power play had three opportunities, including a 5-on-3 power play, and Dostal found a way to only allow one goal. He was the sole reason they picked up two points in the Oilers’ game.

One of the most impressive parts of his game to me so far is how confident and strong his first push is. He has rarely taken himself out of position with his push, and also has found himself starting the motion at the perfect time to cut off the angles. Below are two of his best saves from the game that really highlight this efficiency of movement.

Dostal was not the only newcomer to the Ducks that had an impact over these two games. Mason McTavish started to show the skill and ability that led to him being taken 3rd overall by the Ducks in 2021. Against the Canadiens, McTavish would post a 75% xGF% at 5v5, with a team-high for forwards of 0.88 xGF, all while limiting chances against with a 0.29 xGA. For those that are not analytically savvy, this meant that while McTavish was on the ice the Ducks generated about three times the amount of chances for than they did against, and to top it all off he had a two-point night.

Against the Oilers, the on-ice numbers were not as pretty, with him posting a 42% xGF%, but in fairness to McTavish, that was the best expected goals for percentage on the team for the game. The Ducks were run over at 5v5, which we will get to more about later. Even with the worse 5v5 numbers, Mason made his impact on the game in the 1st period by setting up the first two goals for the Ducks. The first one was especially impressive. He receives the pass from Megna in full stride and gets to the slot. He then recognizes that both Oilers’ defensemen have committed to him, which would leave Carrick wide open on the back post. Instead of making the simple play and putting the puck on the net from a dangerous location, he realizes that the more dangerous option is slipping the puck to Sam Carrick, which he does with a deft no-look pass. These are the types of high-level plays that can make McTavish a real difference-maker for this Ducks team long term.

While the Oilers’ game was not pretty, the Canadiens’ game should provide more hope for Ducks fans. In that game, the Ducks posted a 61% xGF% at 5v5 (the season average is 39%), with the team generating 2 xGF and only allowing 1.27 xGA at 5v5. That type of defensive performance is almost unheard of from this Ducks team that regularly allows 3+ expected goals against with their inconsistent defensive zone coverage. The coaching staff needs to have that tape on a loop to try and reinforce the good habits that can come from that type of performance.

The Bad

The worst part of these two games was the second and third periods against the Oilers. After Ryan Strome gave the Ducks the 3-1 lead in the 2nd period, the Ducks would go on to generate only 9 shot attempts and 0.33 expected goals for. That Strome goal was scored at 8 minutes and 31 seconds in the 2nd period meaning that there were 31 minutes and 29 seconds left in the game. To put that into perspective the Ducks had 29 shot attempts for and 1.32 expected goals for at the time of the Strome goal. Whether it was due to strategic reasons, poor executions, or being tired from an east coast road trip, the Ducks entered into a shell and soaked up all of the pressure from the Oilers.

Over those thirty-one and a half minutes, the Oilers would take 53 shot attempts, which would amount to 4.67 expected goals. The Ducks coaching staff and skaters were extremely fortunate that Lukas Dostal turned in a fantastic performance and Stuart Skinner made a massive mistake on the Klingberg goal in the third period because if this exact game was played 9 more times, the Ducks might have lost all 9 games. Moneypuck.com does a simulation for each game based on the shot and chance data to determine which team “deserves to win the game” and it was not pretty for the Ducks.

The following images below do a really good job of showing the scale of things from a shot attempt and expected goals perspective in this game.

The big picture issue from all of that is that the Ducks do not know how to defend a lead. Some of that comes from not having a lead very much so far, they have only led for 13% of their time at 5v5, but a large part also appears to be strategic. If this team is going to try and improve, they need to keep trying to apply pressure instead of soaking it up.

The past two games have shown that the Ducks have the ability to be better than their current record shows, the real question is whether they can take the lessons learned from both of these games, both positive and negative, to continue to improve.

All statistics per evolving-hockey