Finally, the big day is almost upon us: Super Bowl LVII. The anticipation is palpable as this Super Bowl accompanies exciting storylines, head-to-head competition, and a historical first–not to mention all taking place in an area of the country drenched in sunshine.
Both teams, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs enter this ultimate competition as number one seeds in their respective conferences. Both of these teams are top five in total offensive yards for the season, with the Chiefs at #1 and the Eagles at #3. Also, this Super Bowl stands with a perfect blend of irony and nostalgia as the current Kansas City Chiefs coach, Andy Reid, was once the Philadelphia Eagles coach. In fact, Reid led the Eagles to the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots in 2004–a game they would ultimately lose–and remains Philadelphia’s all-time leader in wins by a head coach.
Super Bowl LVII also makes a significant point in history for the NFL. For the first time, both team quarterbacks–Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts–will be the first two African American quarterbacks to start for both teams in Super Bowl history. Awesome.
The players are not just the busy ones during Super Bowl. The fans also have their hands full with intent fandom, Super Bowl Squares, and crazy prop bets. Then again, you can be like Bradley Cooper’s character from “Silver Linings Playbook,” who always sees the silver lining, especially when betting on the Eagles winning parlay.
Some interesting betting trends to consider for this matchup is that Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 for his career against-the-spread. Super Bowl-winning teams are 47-7-2 ATS, with the Cincinnati Bengals standing as one of the few losing teams that covered ATS last year (despite their loss to the Rams.) One trend that is not on the Eagles’ side is that NFC favorites are 0-4 ATS in their last four Super Bowl games.
Some obscure betting trends to consider: according to “Pro Football Focus” (PFF), the last eight Super Bowl coin toss winners have gone on to lose. Yes, winners are losers. In the four Super Bowls played in Glendale, Arizona, the underdogs have typically been the favorites. The underdogs are 3-0 Against-The-Spread and 2-1 straight up. Another, albeit more obscure, trend is that teams wearing white jerseys are 15-3 Straight up in the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs will be wearing the white jerseys.
Let’s see if these odds continue and amid the showdown to the Super Bowl winner.
Chiefs vs Eagles (-1.5) Over/Under: 51
Safely, if you wanted to base your bet on prior championship experience, then be our guest and go with the Chiefs and their seasoned coach. However, we at The Sporting Tribune are not counting on experience for this Super Bowl, we are basing our prediction on who the better team is right now. At this moment, second-year Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is leading the most well-rounded team. They finished third in total offense and scoring points and second in total defense. In the playoffs, they have averaged 34.5 points per game and have ranked first in total defense. The Eagles’ front seven has a hellacious pass rush, as they are the first team in NFL history to have four players with double-digit sacks in a season. Hassan Reddick tied for second in the league in sacks (16) and generated a pass rush at the third-fastest clip this season.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Eagles are a more well-established team than the Chiefs. Jalen Hurts, when healthy, was on pace to win league MVP and finished the year with 22 passing touchdowns to six interceptions, along with 13 rushing touchdowns. He finished the year with the third-best QBR in the league. He has demonstrated excellent control as a leader, and the Eagles have masterfully followed his lead. The Eagles have big advantages at wide receiver with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith both having 1,000+ yard receiving seasons, and Dallas Goedert stands as one of the better tight ends in the league. Miles Sanders was one of the league leaders in rushing with 1,269 rushing yards on the year.
The Chiefs, despite a grueling win over the Bengals at home in the last week, are hobbling their way to the finish line. The Eagles’ ferocious pass rush can make life very difficult for Mahomes, who is still dealing with a high ankle sprain that tends to linger with running quarterbacks. There is one area the Eagles will plan to exploit on the Chiefs. The Chiefs’ best corner, Ljarius Snead, suffered a knee injury in the AFC title game so he certainly won’t have healed 100%. The Chiefs will be limited and hurt on both sides of the ball, and we expect the Eagles to capitalize on these weaknesses. We are taking the Eagles to win their second Lombardi trophy.
As far as the O/U goes, most of the public is planning on taking the over due to the high-powered offenses, but we do not see it that way. The last three teams from the AFC West in the Super Bowl, which include two with the Chiefs, have gone under in the ATS Super Bowl. The Eagles also have had their best pass rush all year and will likely make life difficult for Mahomes. Other than Travis Kelce, The Eagles lack consistency in the wide receiver department.
Our pick: Eagles -1.5 and under 51
Here are some player Props we at TST suggest you take:
Chiefs Player Props:
Travis Kelce Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-125)
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-194)
Jerrick McKinnion Over 3.5 Receptions (+138)
Jerrick McKinnion Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Eagles Player Props:
Miles Sanders Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
AJ Brown Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Kenneth Gainwell Over 1.5 Receptions (-142)
Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 Rushing Yards(-110)
Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions (-140)
Jalen Hurts Super Bowl MVP (+130)
Other Super Bowl Props:
Color of Gatorade Poured on Winning Head Coach: Yellow/ Green/Lime (+100)
Coin Toss Winner to lose the game (-104)