Happy New Year! As we pause to reflect on the past year, there is no better week than this to have the theme of time. Like in movies when a hero is running out of time to save the day, specific teams are at the point where it is gut-check time for them to make the playoffs. Coaches like Nathaniel Hackett of the Denver Broncos ultimately ran out of time as head coach. Now is the time that even teams with only one loss can be eliminated and vanish until next year, which is equivalent to Thanos’ finger snap in Avengers.
This week, teams like the Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders can clinch a playoff berth with a win on Sunday. However, other teams, like the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers, can ultimately snuff out their chances and miss out on the playoffs with one single loss.
It’s the time in the spotlight for the hottest team in the league, the San Francisco 49ers, winning eight in a row and having covered six straight and seven of their last eight games. The Cincinnati Bengals are also prime time, they have the best record in the league against the spread at 12-3, and are on a seven-game winning streak. The big question for the week is how teams like these handle crunch time. According to “Action Network,” teams playing to win over the final two weeks have a 63% chance of covering against the spread.
Let’s see how time will treat the teams this week and how the looming stories will unfold. Now, let’s get to this week’s picks.
All betting lines are courtesy of Circa Sports. (Reserve a seat at the Circa Sportsbook or Stadium Swim.)
Browns vs. Commanders (-2) Over/Under: 40.5
Even though they are on the brink of elimination, we see the Commanders seizing the moment this week and performing well under pressure. Carson Wentz is back, replacing a struggling Taylor Heinicke. Playing for his future, we see Wentz limiting his turnovers and making this his time to shine. This also can be a valuable game for the Commanders’ lead running back, Brian Robinson, as the Browns are the 25th-ranked rushing defense and allow the third most fantasy points for running backs. Though the Browns have mathematically been eliminated from playoff contention and aren’t playing with the same desperation as the Commanders are, we are taking the home favorite, the Commanders, in this one.
Our pick: Commanders-2
Colts vs. Giants (-4.5) Over/Under: 39.5
We are going to roll with the G-Men Giants for this matchup. With the win, they are in the playoffs. The Giants have the second-best record in the league against the spread at 11-4, and they are going up against a very weak Colts offense that got obliterated by the Chargers this past Monday. The QB carousel for the Colts has been a disaster, as Nick Foles committed three interceptions on Monday night. On the offensive side of the ball, the Giants should dominate the run game, as the Colts have allowed the seventh most rushing yards in the league. The time is now for the Giants, and we like them in this matchup.
Our pick: Giants -4.5
Niners (-6) vs. Raiders Over/Under 44.5:
Though a heavy favorite, we are still going to roll with the hottest team in the league, the Niners, in this duel. The Raiders just benched their starting quarterback (Derek Carr) for backup Jarrett Stidham. Stidham has a 52% completion percentage for his career, and we don’t have a lot of faith he can improve that completion percentage against the best pass rush in the NFL led by the Defensive-Player-of-the-Year favorite, Nick Bosa. Not only are the Niners dominating the defensive side of the ball, but they are a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball as well. They have scored over 30+ points three times in the last month. Brock Purdy has been a stud, and George Kittle has been balling lately with back-to-back games with 2+ touchdowns. So, one team is going uphill, and the other team is going downhill, and this is our lock of the week.
Our pick: Niners-6
Bills (-1) vs. Bengals Over/Under 49.5:
The time is now, and there is no turning back that this is the game of the week. Honestly, it was a tough call, but we are going to take the home team, the Bengals. They are the hottest team in the league, winning seven games in a row and nine of their last ten games. This offense is getting healthier and scarier with Ja’ Marr Chase and Joe Mixon back…and just in time. The Bills team is prone to turnovers as Josh Allen has had five games with 2+ interceptions, and the rest of the Bills team has made 24 turnovers for the season on the offensive side of the ball. No home team plays better in a clutch and is less turnover prone than the other, and that team is… Who Dey Nation. This. Is. Their. Time.
Our pick: Bengals +1
