This week’s theme is WIN. Win, Win Win, Win. WIN no matter the cost, WIN no matter how insane your bets are, and WIN no matter how insane your parlays are. WIN at any cost.
These words remind me of a quote Adam Sandler’s character made from the movie, “Uncut Gems” where his character, Howard Ratner, tells Kevin Garnett, “This is how I win.”
Take it from us, we know how to win. Let’s use last week as an example.
Each and every week TST’s goal is to have a winning record. Last week, we went a perfect 4-0. So with our fingers crossed that we can be perfect once again, let’s take a look at this week’s trends in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins are 8-3 against the spread in their previous 11 home games; the Buccaneers are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games in November, and the Los Angeles Chargers are on a 5-0 cover on the road streak.
These teams are indeed using Howard Ratner’s approach of winning–or at least covering–by any means necessary. Hopefully, we can keep up this good momentum for our readers and the betting public. Now let’s get to our picks for this week and see if this approach works!
Bengals (-1) at Titans Over/Under 42.5
If one team has been under the radar and has been disrespected many times, it has been the Titans. Over the last eight weeks, the Titans have covered the spread and won some of those games. The last time the Titans lost a home game was in week one against the surprising Giants. Yes, the Bengals are probably getting Ja’Marr Chase back from a hip injury, but who knows if he will be back at full strength. The Titans are undoubtedly close to full force and coming off ten days of rest. This game could be a playoff preview and the matchup is terrific for the Titans. The Bengals have given up 100 yards rushing in five of their past six games, which smells like a recipe for success for Derrick Henry.
Our pick: Titans +1
Texans at Dolphins (-13) Over/Under 46
We know what you’re thinking; you’re asking yourself why you picked a team with a heavy spread. Well, for one, the Houston Texans have the worst record in the league this year at 1-8-1, and I don’t see this trend changing even if their new quarterback Kyle Allen is better than Davis Mills. The Miami Dolphins are fresh off a bye, and they have yet to lose a game this year when Tua Tagovailoa has played a complete game. The Dolphins have been firing on all cylinders on offense this year and are the third-ranked total offense in the league. We expect them to run the ball a lot more this week as they are going up against the 32nd-ranked rush defense in the league. We have this as our lock of the week, and the Dolphins couldn’t have picked a better game to dominate coming off of the bye week.
Our pick: Dolphins -13
Chargers (-5) at Cardinals Over/Under 47.5
We pick the Chargers again for the second week in a row. Yes, the Chargers have been somewhat of a disappointment this year, partly due to injuries, but they have been excellent against the spread on the road, as they are 5-0 against the spread away from SoFi Stadium. The Chargers have shown some life on the offensive side of the ball, and Keenan Allen did provide somewhat of a spark last week, albeit he’s still a bit limited with the hamstring injury. The Arizona Cardinals are an absolute mess right now and got ambushed on the Monday night game in Mexico City against the Niners 38-10. The Cardinals have lost nine of their last ten home games and have gone 2-8 against the spread. This should be a big day for Justin Herbert, as the Cardinals are ranked 23rd against the pass. Expect a nice victory and cover for the Chargers with their playoff hopes on the line.
Our pick: Chargers -5
Bucs (-3.5) at Browns Over/Under 42.5
The last time we picked against the GOAT in this column, we were wrong. This time we are not picking against Tom Brady and the Bucs. Tampa is coming off a bye and has won two big games against the Rams at home and against the Seahawks in Munich. They are facing a below-average Browns team that hasn’t exactly stayed afloat before Deshaun Watson’s return. The Bucs have gotten healthier on both sides of the ball and have been very good against the spread on the road thus far, as they are 3-2 against the spread away from home this season, including the Munich game. The Browns are 2-3 against the spread at home this season. This game is trending in the Bucs direction to win and to cover, as we are not betting against Brady this time.
Our pick: Our pick: Bucs -3.5